February 27, 2012 Castleton Poll Results

February 27, 2012

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Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Generally speaking, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Generally speaking, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? 1. Right Direction 36% 36% 36% 39% 36% 35% 9% 33% 59% 22% 33% 43% 48%
2. Wrong track 53% 56% 50% 54% 52% 53% 87% 55% 27% 69% 59% 43% 42%
8. Not sure (vol.) 11% 7% 14% 8% 11% 12% 4% 11% 14% 9% 8% 14% 10%
9. Refused (vol.) 1% 1% 0%   0% 0%   1%   1%   1%  
Total Unweighted Count 800 363 437 66 458 253 147 337 214 200 165 272 153
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? 1 Approve 56% 51% 60% 59% 56% 54% 9% 55% 89% 40% 46% 65% 71%
2 Disapprove 33% 38% 28% 27% 32% 37% 83% 32% 5% 47% 37% 27% 19%
8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.) 11% 10% 12% 13% 12% 9% 8% 13% 7% 12% 17% 7% 9%
9 Refuse to answer (vol.) 0% 1% 0%   0% 0%   0%   1%   0%  
Total Unweighted Count 800 363 437 66 458 253 147 337 214 200 165 272 153
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Some people have called for a constitutional amendment that would allow government to put limits on the amounts that wealthy individuals and interest groups could spend on political campaigns. Would you favor or oppose such an amendment?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Some people have called for a constitutional amendment that would allow government to put limits on the amounts that wealthy individuals and interest groups could spend on political campaigns. Favor or oppose? 1 Oppose strongly 8% 13% 4% 8% 5% 12% 10% 10% 4% 6% 8% 9% 8%
2 Oppose somewhat 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 13% 5% 6% 9% 10% 4% 6%
3 Favor somewhat 18% 17% 19% 22% 18% 15% 21% 17% 18% 18% 18% 19% 15%
4 Favor strongly 58% 58% 58% 52% 64% 53% 36% 61% 68% 52% 59% 58% 66%
8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.) 9% 5% 12% 10% 6% 12% 19% 6% 5% 14% 5% 9% 5%
9 Refused to answer (vol.) 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%   1% 1%   1%   1%  
Total Unweighted Count 800 363 437 66 458 253 147 337 214 200 165 272 153
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Would you favor or oppose increasing the term for Vermont governors from two years to four years, or do you have no opinion on this matter?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Would you favor or oppose increasing the term for Vermont governors from two years to four years, or do you have no opinion on this matter? 1 Favor 4-year term 58% 61% 54% 48% 63% 58% 51% 61% 65% 40% 54% 63% 77%
2 Oppose 4-year term 25% 22% 27% 27% 23% 25% 34% 26% 15% 36% 30% 20% 11%
8 Have no opinion 17% 17% 18% 25% 14% 17% 15% 13% 19% 22% 15% 18% 12%
9 Refuse to answer 0% 0% 1%   0% 0%     0% 1%      
Total Unweighted Count 800 363 437 66 458 253 147 337 214 200 165 272 153
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
How likely are you to vote in this year's presidential primary?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
How likely are you to vote in this year's presidential primary? Definitely will vote (vol.) 16% 15% 17% 14% 12% 24% 14% 20% 14% 16% 18% 16% 14%
Very likely 53% 53% 52% 44% 56% 53% 67% 49% 53% 54% 54% 49% 59%
Somewhat likely 12% 11% 14% 16% 13% 8% 8% 13% 11% 14% 13% 10% 12%
Not likely 14% 17% 12% 21% 13% 11% 10% 14% 15% 11% 11% 19% 12%
Will not vote (vol.) 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 2%   4% 5% 2% 4% 4% 2%
Not sure (vol.) 1% 1% 2%   1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Refuse to answer (vol.) 0% 0% 0%   0%     0%   1%      
Total Unweighted Count 780 355 425 66 450 242 146 329 206 194 161 265 150
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Are you more likely to vote in the Republican or the Democratic Presidential primary?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Are you more likely to vote in the Republican or the Democratic Presidential primary? Republican Primary 35% 42% 29% 32% 36% 34% 89% 35% 3% 35% 41% 35% 31%
Democratic Primary 44% 36% 50% 44% 46% 42%   38% 90% 37% 39% 45% 60%
Not sure (vol.) 17% 18% 17% 23% 14% 21% 8% 24% 6% 24% 19% 16% 8%
Refuse to answer (vol.) 4% 4% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 0% 4% 2% 5% 1%
Total Unweighted Count 644 282 362 50 370 206 129 270 170 162 138 210 128
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president this year?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president this year? 4 Very satisfied 7% 7% 7%   10% 4% 9% 4% 13% 7% 5% 10% 3%
3 Somewhat satisfied 39% 43% 35% 30% 38% 48% 48% 30% 19% 44% 44% 37% 28%
2 Somewhat dissatisfied 32% 30% 33% 49% 32% 23% 31% 33% 13% 34% 36% 25% 33%
1 Very dissatisfied 18% 15% 21% 21% 17% 18% 6% 29% 55% 10% 10% 22% 36%
8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.) 4% 5% 4%   3% 6% 5% 3%   5% 4% 6%  
9 Refused to answer (vol.) 0% 1%       2% 1%       2%    
Total Unweighted Count 226 124 102 16 132 69 116 94 6 52 62 73 38
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
If the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination ...
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Vote in Republican Primary Mitt Romney 34% 38% 30% 30% 35% 36% 35% 31% 43% 32% 35% 31% 42%
Newt Gingrich 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10%   8% 18% 5% 8%
Rick Santorum 27% 25% 29% 30% 25% 29% 35% 19%   33% 27% 24% 23%
Ron Paul 14% 12% 17% 26% 16% 7% 5% 28%   15% 10% 20% 9%
Jon Huntsman 1% 1% 1%   1% 1%   1% 16%   3%    
Other 1% 1% 2%     3% 1%   15% 2%   2%  
Not sure 4% 5% 3%   5% 3% 3% 5%   4% 1% 4% 9%
Refused 9% 8% 9% 5% 9% 10% 10% 6% 25% 7% 6% 13% 8%
Total Unweighted Count 231 127 104 16 133 72 117 97 7 53 64 75 38
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Now, how likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the March 6th Primary?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Now, how likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the March 6th Primary? 1 Very likely to change mind 8% 10% 6% 10% 6% 10% 8% 7%   2% 14% 6% 13%
2 Somewhat likely to change mind 36% 33% 40% 45% 39% 28% 40% 34% 39% 57% 35% 29% 19%
3 Unlikely to change mind 34% 39% 28% 25% 37% 35% 34% 35% 32% 27% 34% 36% 40%
4 Will definitely not change mind (vol.) 10% 7% 15% 16% 7% 15% 7% 14% 17% 2% 5% 17% 22%
8 Not sure (vol.) 9% 9% 10% 5% 8% 13% 11% 9% 13% 11% 10% 10% 6%
9 Refused (vol.) 2% 2% 1%   3%   2% 1%   2% 2% 2%  
Total Unweighted Count 226 124 102 16 132 69 116 94 6 52 62 73 38
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Regardless who you support ... Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating President Obama in the 2012 general election?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Regardless who you support ... Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating President Obama in the 2012 general election? Mitt Romney 47% 53% 42% 42% 51% 45% 57% 41% 53% 40% 46% 47% 60%
Newt Gingrich 4% 5% 3%   4% 6% 6% 4% 2% 5% 4% 3% 3%
Rick Santorum 13% 14% 12% 11% 14% 11% 18% 14% 8% 15% 16% 11% 8%
Ron Paul 4% 5% 4% 10% 4% 2% 1% 4% 7% 5% 1% 7% 1%
Someone else 1% 1% 1%   2% 0%   1%   2% 1% 0%  
All or any of them 1% 1%   2%   0% 2% 0%     2% 0%  
None of them 9% 8% 10% 5% 8% 12% 4% 9% 11% 10% 7% 9% 11%
Not sure 10% 5% 14% 18% 8% 9% 6% 10% 10% 12% 13% 9% 6%
Refused 12% 7% 15% 12% 11% 14% 6% 14% 10% 11% 10% 13% 12%
Total Unweighted Count 664 290 374 50 378 217 130 278 178 168 142 217 131
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Would you favor or oppose making the Vermont primaries earlier in the calendar year in order to give Vermont voters a larger role in the selection of the party presidential candidates?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Would you favor or oppose making the Vermont primaries earlier in the calendar year in order to give Vermont voters a larger role in the selection of the party presidential candidates? 1 Favor moving up the date 29% 24% 33% 48% 30% 17% 27% 29% 31% 35% 39% 25% 14%
2 Oppose moving up the date 43% 46% 40% 27% 44% 51% 47% 42% 44% 39% 33% 46% 55%
8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.) 28% 30% 26% 26% 26% 32% 25% 29% 25% 26% 28% 28% 31%
9 Refuse to answer (vol.) 0%   0%   0%   1%         0%  
Total Unweighted Count 664 290 374 50 378 217 130 278 178 168 142 217 131
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Would you still favor moving the primaries to an earlier date if it were to cost the state more tax payer funds to hold presidential primaries in advance of Town meeting day?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Would you still favor moving the primaries to an earlier date if it were to cost the state more tax payer funds to hold presidential primaries in advance of Town meeting day? 1 Still favor 21% 21% 21% 17% 21% 25% 20% 19% 22% 19% 22% 22% 24%
2 Oppose 66% 60% 70% 68% 67% 64% 77% 62% 69% 73% 57% 68% 61%
8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.) 13% 18% 9% 15% 12% 12% 3% 20% 9% 8% 20% 9% 14%
9 Refuse to answer (vol.) 0% 1%     1%             1%  
Total Unweighted Count 175 57 118 21 114 37 36 70 47 61 42 51 19
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
Which one of the following issues matters most to you in deciding your vote for president in 2012?
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
Which one of the following issues matters most to you in deciding your vote for president in 2012? Jobs 34% 33% 36% 55% 31% 27% 32% 35% 38% 33% 39% 34% 32%
Budget deficit 22% 26% 19% 25% 25% 17% 36% 22% 16% 19% 21% 29% 18%
Health care 18% 17% 18% 9% 22% 18% 11% 19% 22% 15% 16% 19% 24%
Social Security 8% 7% 10%   6% 19% 6% 6% 12% 17% 8% 5% 5%
Immigration 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 0%  
Abortion 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1%
Other 7% 8% 6% 2% 9% 7% 4% 8% 5% 4% 7% 7% 13%
All 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 5% 3% 5%
Not sure 2% 1% 3% 5% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 4% 1% 2% 2%
Refused 0% 0% 0%   1%       1%     1%  
Total Unweighted Count 664 290 374 50 378 217 130 278 178 168 142 217 131
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Newt Gingrich were the Republican candidate …
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Newt Gingrich were the Republican candidate … Vote for Obama 64% 58% 70% 67% 66% 62% 12% 71% 95% 51% 60% 68% 82%
Lean Obama 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2%   1%   2% 2%
Lean Gingrich 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2%  
Vote for Gingrich 22% 27% 18% 19% 21% 24% 64% 16% 3% 29% 30% 18% 10%
Not sure / neither (vol.) 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 16% 9% 1% 15% 8% 7% 5%
Refuse to answer (vol.) 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1%   2% 1% 3%  
Total Unweighted Count 664 290 374 50 378 217 130 278 178 168 142 217 131
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican candidate …
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican candidate … Vote for Obama 57% 51% 62% 53% 61% 56% 4% 62% 93% 47% 50% 60% 78%
Lean Obama 1% 2% 1%   2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 2%
Lean Romney 2% 1% 3% 5% 0% 3% 5% 3%   2% 2% 3%  
Vote for Romney 31% 37% 25% 33% 28% 32% 84% 25% 4% 41% 39% 25% 17%
Not sure / neither (vol.) 6% 5% 6% 3% 6% 7% 4% 7% 2% 7% 8% 5% 3%
Refuse to answer (vol.) 3% 3% 3% 7% 2% 1% 2% 4%   2% 1% 6%  
Total Unweighted Count 664 290 374 50 378 217 130 278 178 168 142 217 131
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Ron Paul were the Republican candidate …
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Ron Paul were the Republican candidate … Vote for Obama 58% 52% 63% 51% 60% 59% 14% 58% 95% 48% 50% 59% 81%
Lean Obama 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Lean Paul 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1%   2% 1% 3%  
Vote for Paul 28% 35% 22% 33% 26% 26% 67% 29% 2% 37% 37% 25% 12%
Not sure / neither (vol.) 8% 7% 9% 9% 7% 9% 11% 8% 1% 9% 9% 8% 5%
Refuse to answer (vol.) 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 4% 1%   3% 1% 3%  
Total Unweighted Count 664 290 374 50 378 217 130 278 178 168 142 217 131
Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rick Santorum were the Republican candidate …
  Total Gender Respondent age Party Affiliation Level of Education
Male Female 18 - 34 35 - 64 65 and older Republican Independent Democrat HS degree or less Some college College degree Post graduate degree
If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rick Santorum were the Republican candidate … Vote for Obama 59% 53% 63% 62% 60% 56% 8% 61% 96% 44% 55% 64% 76%
Lean Obama 1% 1% 0%   1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2%     3%
Lean Santorum 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1%  
Vote for Santorum 30% 34% 26% 29% 28% 32% 81% 27% 1% 39% 36% 26% 17%
Not sure / neither (vol.) 7% 6% 8% 5% 7% 10% 5% 9% 2% 11% 6% 6% 4%
Refuse to answer (vol.) 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1%   2% 1% 3%  
Total Unweighted Count 664 290 374 50 378 217 130 278 178 168 142 217 131